In a seminar, Army Chief General M M Naravane said that India is witnessing trailers of future conflict as grey zone warfare and non-contact warfare play out in different domains-including non-settled borders. He noted that the requirement of ready and capable forces with optimal components of boots on the ground, supported by modern technology, is an emergent need.
Indian Navy Chief Admiral R Hari Kumar and Indian Air Force Chief ACM V R Chaudhari also noted that multi-domain military capabilities need to be developed to prepare for wars of the future synergistically. The cyber and space domains, which shall be included in the traditional domains of air, sea, and land, will be the future battlegrounds.
General Naravane further said that by often avoiding a direct military engagement and restoring the extensive use of proxy actors, these wars blur the distinction between combatants and non-combatants. At the same time, hostilities in the cyber, sub-conventional, information, and hybrid domains continue without a formal pronouncement of war between states. For the same, Defence Cyber Agency, Armed Forces Special Operations Division and the Defence Space Agency are steps towards developing integrated capabilities in these domains.
Mission Victory India (MVI) spoke to veterans who expressed their views on Army Chief, Gen. MM Naravane's Greyzone Warfare speech
Colonel Rajinder Kushwaha (Retd) believes that there would be no more "monkey dancing" of soldiers across the border as the land warfare has been severely affected and would lead to border skirmishes in the worst case. We have already witnessed trailers of these skirmishes in Eastern Ladakh and Doklam.
He further said that "acquiring lebensraum and territorial assets would no longer be an objective of war. Instead of seeking destruction, causing acceptable damage to the war potential of the adversary would be the primary goal. The era of invisible wars has arrived which shall be fought by 'smart soldiers and smart weapons'."
Brigadier Pradeep Sharma (Retd) explained the inherent complications of grey zone warfare. He said that "a grey zone war creates difficulty for the people and the government to identify and understand. Due to the lack of realisation of being at war, mobilising public sentiments and national resources poses a challenge."
He further highlighted that while the dichotomy in public proclamations sends nebulous signals internally and internationally, all of the above run counter to national preparation for even a localised war.
"Downsizing versus right-sizing- which would entail the right number of boots on the ground supported by technology which facilitates a quick grab and hold to improve our posture, Interdiction where required, backed by national will and international support- is a must," the veteran opined.
However, Brigadier Sarvesh Dangwal (Retd) took a different stand. He told MVI, "every country has the right to achieve its strategic aims even if it is through the grey zone, making a statement that future war would be more in political, military, and economic dominance rather than full-fledged war; This does not amount to being pearls of wisdom, and it has been quite obvious since a long time."
The veteran noted that although full-fledged wars are a remote possibility, a war with a Northern neighbour, confined to a particular theatre, could happen sometime in future. He highlighted that it is not bound to happen soon because of the global situation, like Ukraine. There are other problems posed by the pandemic, economic and domestic difficulties. Thus, "realistically speaking, full-fledged wars are almost out," he said.
While the current steps being taken by the Indian administration is a welcome one, quite a few believe that it leaves much to be desired.
Col. Shivaji Ranjan Ghosh (Retd) said that while the "establishment of the Defence Space Agency, the Defence Cyber Agency, and the Armed Forces Special Operations Division" is a good sign, there is a need to lay focus on the grassroots level. He opined that tomorrow's Armed Forces have to be a balanced mix of brain and brawn.
Brig Govind Ilangovan, on the other hand, mentioned the Ladakh Conundrum and said that "scientific advancements have added many more dimensions to complicate the scenario; This calls for the political and military leadership to possess situational awareness, understanding, and a clear vision of all strategy. The Indian Armed Forces would now, more than ever, need highly skilled human resources, machines, more resources, research, inventions, innovation, and sustained support from the top leadership of the country."
The bottom line is that scientific advancements have added many more dimensions to complicate the scenario. Brig. Dangwal (Retd) told MVI that such a situation "calls for the political and military leadership to possess situational awareness, understanding and a clear vision and most of all, a strategy. The Armed Forces would now, more than ever, need highly skilled manpower, machines, more resources, research, inventions, innovation, and sustained support from the country's top leadership."
Brig. BL Poonia (Retd) spoke of achieving a strategic victory on the China front. According to him, the wisest course of action would be to ratify our boundaries based on historical realities and fair play. "That would reduce our defence budget drastically, and we would be able to concentrate on Pakistan. Moreover, it will lead to peace and economic progress. But the problem is that the public has been made to believe a different story since 1954, and now after 67 years if any government dares to ratify the borders with China, it will simply cease to exist," he pointed out.
"The problem itself is very complex and has led to an impasse, and unfortunately, we, and our future generations, will have to live with it. The only answer and hope lie if we can ever have a strong Prime Minister with bold and visionary statesmanship to ratify the borders with China, even at the cost of losing power. There is no other way," Brig. Poonia concluded in his assessment. "The Chinese doctrine of 'Unrestricted Warfare' says it all," Group Captain Johnson Chacko (Retd) commented surmising Beijing's warfighting strategy.
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