Sino Indo Logjam: Facts, Risks, Options & the Sum of All Fears

"The Taiwanese have warned that any more violation of their airspace will invite retaliatory action. There are reports which say that a Sino-US armed conflict is getting more real. China is more isolated than ever. Internally, Inner Mongolia continues to fester. Tibet is getting revived."


Sino Indo Logjam: Facts, Risks, Options & the Sum of All Fears
"An officer on the LAC recently celebrated his birth day. When asked what was on the menu for his birthday party , he replied ‘Chinese’ and lots of them. Attaboy. That’s called morale." - An Abridged Tweet -

Battle Indicators: ‘Global Times’ videos indicate that PLA is rehearsing for an offensive. Air Defence drills around Lhasa. Fibre optic cables being laid  in Spangur. Early battle indicators, the real indicator will be dumping Artillery ammunition and build up. When that happens - real business is afoot. Till then relax or chew your nails. Notwithstanding, since the Chinese are chafing to teach us a lesson. So what is in the offing?

Hardening Defences: Indian Infantry has dug in at the heights since two weeks. The defences are hardening and getting coordinated. It means overhead protection,  stocking and obstacle laying. A defensive fire plan is evolving with IAF, Artillery, Tanks and Infantry Mortars in the mix. Selected  and surveyed targets would be Chinese assembly areas, routes of ingress, forming up places (FUP) for assault, enemy gun areas, hqs and more.

Suffice to say that the Chinese will get a hell of a whack. The Chinese have focussed on mechanisation by rote. That is contained in their White Paper as a doctrine. They did not realise that High Altitude warfare is vastly different. Why? Simple. Difference between political and professional armies. I hope that ‘Global Times’ editor is around to photograph hilarious Chinese sergeant majors blowing whistles and trumpets to commence ferocious attacks.

His story will be different now – how drones used for food are being multitasked for body bag delivery. Everyone says that China will attack and teach India a lesson. Good. Let’s do some honest analysis.

A bipolarity  is emerging. Internal portrayal of being unfairly cornered and an external reality of coercively cornering everyone. Such a diabolic schism was last seen in Hitler’s Germany.
Indian infantrymen deployed in HAA; File Photo

Isolation Reinforced: After Wang Yi’s visit to EU states, Germany has opted on the side of democracies in the Indo Pacific region. That  was  inevitable. Indonesia refused to provide any bases for the Chinese. They are now objecting to Chinese transgressions in the Natuna Seas. The spat with Australia is worsening. India and Japan have signed a defence pact.

The Taiwanese have warned that any more violation of their airspace will invite retaliatory action. There are reports which say that a Sino-US armed conflict is getting more real. China is more isolated than ever. Internally, Inner Mongolia continues to fester. Tibet is getting revived. Xinjiang issue is on the verge of revival. India can help both along. Hong Kong is not out of the news. The right time to ramp up the conflict with another Nuclear Power? Great Chinese strategic thinking.

Lebensraum and Persecuted Victimhood:  Before Nazi offensives and pogroms, Hitler sold the ‘Lebensraum Dream’ and the ‘Persecuted Victimhood Complex’ to Germany. Something similar is happening in China. Initially  Xi Jinping  sold the ‘China Dream’, pronounced a period of great strategic opportunity and started building the greatest military on earth.

He brainwashed Chinese that the CCP way was the best during  the Wuhan Virus crisis. Pogroms  against the Uighurs are well documented. He has spoken of solidifying Tibet security and communising religion. Wayward  Hong Kongers are brought in line. He  pronounces that China will follow the Communist economic model come what may. He popularises himself  with people by visiting them during floods.

He is invoking people to overcome hardships due to denial of technologies - imported seeds for agriculture,  critical components in manufacturing, dependence on oil imports, distribution of water resources and pharmaceuticals and medical equipment for an ageing population. The position of the CCP inside China is being constantly consolidated. The emerging picture - ‘Persecuted Victimhood Complex’ of China  being denied and pushed into a corner by a disintegrating and inimically jealous world. External picture.  

China is ordained to rule the world. Only China can win - at any cost. Every one falls in line. Political, economic, diplomatic or military coercion works, always and every time. China will expand based on some mythological irredentism. ‘Aggressive Lebensraum’. The world, ravaged by the Virus from China is being herded into a corner to establish Chinese supremacy. Everything is Xi  centric to  rule the world.

A bipolarity  is emerging. Internal portrayal of being unfairly cornered and an external reality of coercively cornering everyone. Such a diabolic schism was last seen in Hitler’s Germany. Nitin Gokhale was right. The transformation to Xitler is complete. We should know who we are dealing with. “The Man Who Would Be King”  not by Rudyard Kipling!

Xitlerian Concept: In the Xitlerian concept, India has no right to defend itself. It must subjugate itself to the lord and emperor of the great Chinese people. If not, be prepared for punishment. The great PLA will defend every inch of Chinese territory recently usurped from India by attacking and punishing India for India asking vacation of its territory. The Idea is to take what it wants. Force an unequal peace. Afterall, China is the greatest. Are there risks and options in this new one sided game?

Risks: There are four risks in this attempt to teach India a lesson. Firstly. With the available troops India cannot be taught a lesson. The fight will be long, hard and bloody. Everything will be at a cost. That cost will be collected by USA in the South China Sea who will not miss the opportunity. A firefight starts there. Taiwan could declare Independence.

End of superpower China. Secondly, after the bloody battle, even if India is defeated, the long guerrilla campaign will start. Tibet and Xinjiang will be in flames. Srinagar Valley is only 15948 sq km. Tibet is 1.22 million sq km and Xinjiang is 1.6 million sq km. See the difference?  China, of the nose bloodied, will have to commit a lot more of PLA to handle the situation on a real long term basis. Its entire global plans go for a toss.

Thirdly, there are very good chances that China will be taught a lesson. In fact I am sure of it. If they start a shooting match and India finishes it, the next stop could be Rudok. That will automatically put Tibet and Xinjiang on flame. Fourthly. What happens if China cannot force victory? The saga of defeat continues. Pakistan has the best Army never to have won a war. China will compete for that honour with its rusty iron brother. Whichever  way it goes, China’s dream will evaporate. Guaranteed. Risk a war? Go ahead China.  BTW, When does the N factor  kick in?

Options. China  is reinforcing Eastern Ladakh with additional troops. The area can hold that many troops only. Any further increase  will diminish returns. Secondly, mountains are good for defenders. It is difficult  to dislodge entrenched defenders unless there are repeated headlong attacks. China has to also decide where to attack. North of Pangong Tso or South of it. (see picture) North of Pangong Tso offers some scope for employment of armour in the Depsang Plains. However it is a shooting match without manoeuvre space.

There is a fair bit of mountainous area North of Pangong Tso also. India can play some tricks, infiltrate and reverse the situation.  While it may be  feasible to get hold of some territory there is a good chance of losing it too for the Chinese.  The key to the whole affair will be the Chusul Gateway , South of Pangong Tso. Can China dislodge us from the strategically important Kailash Range? In an area devoid of cover and a single avenue of approach the attacker is exposed (see picture – 3d view of area beyond Spangur).

Headbutting will be very costly. Results will be minimal. Of course, China can expand into other sectors further South. In which case its commitment and imbalance will expand. It  will slowly be sucked in and stretched to a point when a counter offensive will happen. Where? Has to be decided between USA and India. The short point is that China is already in a trap of its own making. So far China has used Sun Tsu’s maxim of winning wars without fighting. This is one war they will have to fight to win but will lose. Want to be a superpower? Bleed a little on the battlefield.

China will be taught a lesson. In fact I am sure of it. If they start a shooting match and India finishes it, the next stop could be Rudok. That will automatically put Tibet and Xinjiang on flame. Fourthly. What happens if China cannot force victory?

Own Option: What should we do? Hold tight. Till winter sets in maintain a low profile. Stay vigilant. Do not get complacent. The enemy is desperate. Do some talking. Stall for time. Play the Chinese game. Two steps forward and no step back - on ground. Once winter sets in, start harassing the Chinese in the rear and spook them in the front.

Imbalances and opportunities will surface. It is the first high altitude winter for his mainline force. He will suffer environmental casualties. His morale will be low. his troops will suffer disorientation. Rub it in.  Incremental actions to attain tactical and strategic significance or opening up offensive options will be of great value. Create small criticalities. Change 'Status quo' in baby steps. No Hurry. Patience. Vigilance. Go for the kill.

A discredited PLA will do greater damage to China.  'Soft' frontline PLA troops should be targeted. They are our 'Centre of Gravity'. Up front within reach. Mountains offer great manoeuvre space. Develop offensive options. Beyond the Kailash range there are no great obstacles or ridge lines till Rudok and the Western Highway. The Pangong Tso gives a secure flank. At some point we must go on the counter offensive. We need to generate some options to force a recoil. I might sound outlandish. However think coolly. We have their measure. Occupation of the Kailash range has opened up options. Hats off guys. Well done.

Where are the Pakis? Aah! Paki Generals…lost half their country. Partnering with them, The USA lost its war on terror. Their advice cost the Saudis two oilfields. They are now advising Chinese.

Story of India: I need to tell a story. Summer of '99. Op Vijay broke out. My regiment (all Rajputs ) was mobilised overnight from the Eastern to the Northern sector. A number of young soldiers on completion of post  recruit training were posted to make good our strengths. All of them reported to Siliguri. Around a dozen of them with a couple of NCOs, retuning from leave, were despatched to join the regiment in the staging area.  

War rumours were abound. At Delhi railway station, two young soldiers (from neighbouring villages) gave the slip and went AWOL. They went home and told their mothers that they came on leave. One of the mothers suspected something unusual and quizzed her son. Out came the  AWOL story. She gave him a couple of tight slaps, took him to the other village and told the other boy’s mother about it. She in turn slapped her son.

How could they become AWOL from the regiment when the nation was at war? One village elder was entrusted to deposit these young soldiers with the unit. He brought them to me and said “ CO sahab inko maaf  kar dena. In dono ka mathaon ne inke saath bahut gussa kiya.

Rajputon ka be-izzati ho gaya. Desh ka Raksha karna hamara kartavya hai. Bcahhe hain. Inko asli Rajput banao aur ladai mein sabse aage le jao.”  That was that and life went on. When I last visited the unit those ‘boys’ are now experienced and tough gunners and junior leaders.

The Sum of All Fears: Indian mothers will send their sons to war as a matter of IZZAT and desh ka Raksha irrespective of caste, creed, Arm or unit. Phillip Mason called it a ‘Matter of Honour’. This spirit of sacrifice is deeply ingrained in Indian blood streams even now. It was on display in Galwan. A country which has such deep rooted patriotism cannot be defeated by some soft ‘one child Chinese’. Why am I recounting this story?

Have faith in our men they will deliver. The sum of all my fears is that some weak bellied and ill-informed politician or diplomat will develop cold feet and fritter away the gains during negotiation. That is our history. We felt diplomacy and international stature will guard the Sino Indian border in 1962.  We gave back Haji Pir in 1965. We gave back 93000 prisoners in 1971.

We even went about saving Chinese ‘face’ during Doklam despite stopping them in their tracks. How wrong were we? Totally. There is a palpable fear swirling around that some jittery character will give away everything we have gained by blood sweat and tears. ‘Status Quo Ante’ of April has lost value.

The Kailash Range should not be traded at any cost. It is ‘off table’ in all negotiations. We need to look at a new status post ante. That could be Northwards into Aksai Chin! Stay tight. This is a defining fight for India. There is more on the cards. The Chinese need a lesson and we will give it to them. Rub their ‘face’ in.

Paki Preoccupation: Where are the Pakis? Aah! Paki Generals…lost half their country. Partnering with them, The USA lost its war on terror. Their advice cost the Saudis two oilfields. They are now advising Chinese. Any guesses…..? ha ha.  Well these deep state worthies  of the frontline nation  are at their frontline at Papa John’s having a board meeting of their remunerative businesses with Dawood as special consultant. What is on their menu? Chinese! What about war fighting? That is for idiots.

Earlier articles in the Sino-Indo Logjam series:

Sino-Indo Logjam: Aim, Capability & Environmental Analysis

No Go For China in the Logjam

Sino Indian Logjam: A Review

(Lt Gen PR Shankar was India's DG Artillery. He is highly decorated and qualified with vast operational experience. He is now a Professor in the Aerospace Dept of IIT Madras. You can reach him on Twitter: @palepurshankar, Email ID: pravishankar3@gmail.com)

(Views expressed are the authors own, and do not reflect the editorial policy of 'Mission Victory India')

Head over to 'Gunners Shot' for all things defence by Lt Gen Shankar

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