Some would yell, “what a stupid question?” But knowledgeable and informed would retort, “what do you mean by ‘imminent’, India is already engulfed in an ‘invisible war’— a precursor of modern war."
Do not be shocked by disbelief that ‘invisible soldiers’ of China and Pakistan are already waging a war with India from inside our borders. One would be wrong, if one thinks that terrorists and militants of J&K, Maoists insurgents of central India or the separatists of North East were referred to as ‘invisible soldiers’ of Pakistan and China. They are actually ‘proxy soldiers.’ or their ‘irregular soldiers.’
The ‘invisible soldiers’ masquerade as overground politicians, media personalities, defence analysts and business men. They are the ‘soul traders’ for money. Here, one is reminded of a CIA agent’s observation of Brigadier Yousuf Mohammed of the Pakistan army, who wrote the book, “Bear Trap — Through Thousand Cuts”.
It may be noted that Brig Yousuf Mohammed was head of the Afghanistan Desk of ISI in early 1980s. He was responsible for procuring and supplying arms to Al -Qaeda outfit of Osama Bin Laden (OBL), waging war against Soviet Army. His armament consignments were organised and managed by CIA.
One day a consignment of arms of one lakh Rifles was received by Brig Yousuf Mohammed. When he opened the consignment, he was shocked to see the 7.62 mm SLR Rifles of Ishapore (India) make. He quizzically looked at his CIA friend because it was a known fact that India was a very close friend of the Soviet Union .
The CIA representative told him , “You know, Yousuf, Indians are bastards, they can sell their mothers for money”. When one looks back at Indian history of the last one millennium, one reads a continuous story of intrigues and betrayals, which led India to lose its sovereignty.
Whether it was betrayal of Raja Dahir of Sindh in 712 AD; Prithviraj Chauhan of Delhi 1192 AD; Rana Sangha at Khanwa in 1527 AD; Nawab Sirajudaulla of Plassey in 1757 AD and Maharaja Ranjit Singh’s Successors of Punjab in 1845, they all show that India lost its sovereignty because of these internal enemies. Jai Chands, Silhadis, Mir Jaffars and Lal Singh-Tej Singh etc still exist under different names in India of the 21st Century .
While China ‘s Indian ‘soul traders’ are busy attriting India internally, Pakistan is engaging India through her ‘Irregular Soldiers.’ The combination of ‘Invisible Soldiers’ and ‘Irregular Soldiers’ make India’s security and defence of borders a complicated issue. India must be ready to fight a ‘Four Fronts War’ I.e. two internally and two externally. To say that India would have to Fight a ‘Two and a half front war is certainly a gross understatement.
As brought out earlier, as far as two internal wars are concerned, India is already fighting with ‘invisible soldiers’ and ‘irregular Soldiers’ of India’s enemies. The first one is aimed at demoralising Indian public and security forces so as to weaken its will to fight. They are the paid ‘mercenaries” of India’s enemies . They could also be called enemy’s Soft Warriors.
The ‘soul traders’ of India or the ‘Soft warriors’ of China, are dishing out ‘dime a dozen’ falsehoods everyday on actual positions on the borders/LAC, and India’s sold-out print and electronic media, are churning out these stories with breathless speed—a rap song of treason in all democracies.
The ‘irregular soldiers’ of Pakistan have intensified the ‘proxy war’ in Kashmir valley. The Prime Minister of Pakistan, instead of condemning terrorist acts, calls such terrorists ‘martyrs.’ He had no qualms in calling OBL a ‘shahid’ in Pakistan’s National Assembly. He went on to accuse India openly for the terrorist attack on June 30, 2020, on Pakistan's Stock exchange in Karachi.
To be very frank, the tell tale marks of the rapid handling of the Karachi incident indicate that it was probably orchestrated, organised and managed by ISI of Pakistan. It was done with the motive to discredit India and hide its nefarious designs in Kashmir, whereby it wants to intensify its ‘Irregular war’ in India.
Therefore, one must not think that India was not at war. It is already fighting an ‘invisible war and ‘irregular war’ on its internal front, launched by China and Pakistan respectively. These are the preferred strategies of waging a war in the 21st Century. This kind of a war is designed to implode one’s adversary from inside, without firing a bullet. They exploit internal vulnerabilities of the adversary in terms of political differences, regional, ethnic and religious chasms, as well as general disenchantment and frustration of the people due to economic imbalances. Noble causes, such as freedom of expression, liberty and democracy often mask the real intentions of ‘soul traders.’ In fact these tools of democracy have become the deadly weapons of ‘invisible wars.’
As far as border wars are concerned on the two external fronts, India faces a combined front war with China and Pakistan. The borders are heating up both with China and Pakistan. A small incident might spark a shooting war. There are reports that Pakistan has mobilised some 20000 troops in Gilgit region, adjoining Ladakh , where China is already fully tuned up to initiate a ‘teach a lesson’ war on India.
Indications are that Ladakh might face a double pincer attack from West and East i.e. Gilgit-Balitastan from Pakistan side and Aksai Chin-Depsang valley from the Chinese side. It is also assessed that the Sino-Pak combined offensive might have two pivots i.e. on the Pakistan side, Skardu might be the pivot in the West and Aksai Chin in the East.
About 15,000 Chinese troops were already there in Gilgit since 2011, and now Pakistan has further beefed it up with 20,000 troops. Skardu is likely to be the hub of Sino-Pak air assault in Ladakh. It is no secret now that China has already stationed its 40 J-10 aircrafts and one IL-78 for on air refuelling the fighter aircrafts. As far as Aksai Chin is concerned, China has one Motorised and one Mechanised Infantry division to launch its offensive from Depsang valley just 30 km South East of DBO—a key strategic location of India—which is China’s eye sour. China has also positioned heavy artillery and armoured vehicles in the region. It has also deployed S400 Russian Air Defence System in Aksai Chin.
China and Pakistan are poised to launch their offensive. Pakistan might provoke India so as to to make an excuse to start the war. Indications are available from ISI orchestrated attack on the Karachi Stock exchange which is being blamed on India without any formal or informal investigations. Pakistani intents are suspect because it would like to fish in India’s troubled waters with China.
It is assessed if the external war of Sino-Pak combined effort has to take place, it would be immediately after the monsoon season, and may be in the first second week of September 2020. The war may last two/three weeks, depending upon India’s resistance and a counter move. Beyond September 2020, the temperature would fall below Zero degree celsius and it would make an offensive blunted even before it was launched.
Napoleon and Hitler learnt a bitter lesson of Russian winters at the cost of their brilliant victories. ‘General Winters’ had robbed them off their dreams. High altitude terrain would further tell upon offensive forces. Therefore, if the balloon for external war has to go up, it is at best in the month of September 2020. Is India ready for a showdown? Your guess is as good as mine but Indian Army would not be found wanting in giving a bloody nose to aggressors, as a slap on the face of ‘Indian Soul Traders.’
(The author was a former CO of 3 Bihar. Views expressed are the authors own, and do not reflect the editorial policy of 'Mission Victory India')
(Col Rajinder Kushwaha is an ex-NDA, commissioned into the 3 Bihar Regiment in June 1971 and was the Commanding Officer of same unit in insurgency environs in Assam in 1990-93. Has vast experience in CI Ops from North East to Punjab and J&K. A prolific writer-cum-critic on defence and security matters, he has authored the book, ‘Kashmir: A Different Perspective’. His second book on Assam was released in April 2018. Held prestigious appointments in the army including as an instructor at a premier army institute, Col GS, Col Adm of an Infantry Division and Col "Q" works at a Command HQ. He can be contacted on e-mail: email@example.com)