he state of American democracy was visible with the mob attack on Capitol Hill. This was followed by deliberate activism in American foreign affairs after the humiliation in Afghanistan, which became the reason to goad Russia into attacking Ukraine. The US has sanctioned Russia to the maximum possible being ill-prepared and having no risk to reward ratio in getting militarily into Ukraine – showcasing the falling supremacy of its hegemony. But beyond this, there appears desperation over uncertainties about what the end state of the conflict will be.
Media says America wants to ascertain Putin’s mental state. Lindsey Graham, Carolina Senator has publicly called Russians to assassinate Putin. How would this idiot like a foreign lawmaker publicly call Americans to assassinate Biden, given that four sitting American presidents were assassinated: Abraham Lincoln (1865), James A Garfield (1881), William McKinley (1901) and John F Kennedy (1963).
Immature Zelensky should have known Russia will not accept Ukraine’s alliance with NATO but the US pampered Zelensky to create problems for the Russian, miscalculating that Russia would not invade Ukraine. Recall US President John F Kennedy did not accept Russian missiles in Cuba and laid a naval siege which led to Russia dismantling its missile bases. Similarly, Ukraine should have been wise enough, like Russians in Cuba, to disassociate itself from NATO’s lure.
Prime Minister Sanna Mirella Marin of Finland must weigh the consequences of accepting NATO membership which Washington is offering to Finland; how it will disrupt the peace in her country with NATO deployments in Finland bang on Russia’s border.
Information warfare is important with the media playing a powerful role. America has invested tremendous effort to influence and buy foreign media to showcase the American version of the Ukraine Conflict. Indian reporters in Ukraine for the first time in a war zone are sensationalized. But wars are not won on television. Russia has already cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea and Kyiv will be surrounded and dealt with in the same manner as Kherson and Kharkiv.
The West continues to extol Zelensky as a hero and the bravery of Ukrainians to hide the fact that hands of US-NATO are as much bloodied with Ukrainian blood – villains sitting on the fence after giving high hopes that “we are with you” but that was all.
Whether the US likes it or not, the Donbas region will remain with Russia (like Crimea) till the Luhansk and Donetsk Peoples Republics are formed and accepted. Control of the Black Sea will also remain with Russia. Beyond this, Russia wants Ukraine to remain neutral.
Prudence demands that Ukraine reach an agreement with Russia for a ceasefire promising it will remain neutral and then thrash out the give and take. But Biden speaks to Zelensky periodically and eggs him to fight on, just to count how many civilians have been killed to malign Putin – even if the overall US-NATO bloodshed record will unlikely be broken. Zelensky is immature and stupid with false heroics, hiding in his bunker having survived two assassination attempts. But has Biden gone senile or his false pride is not letting him visualize the end state?
Putin has been portrayed as a lunatic but despite the White Chick Brigade having shot off the maximum possible sanctions. But now Islamic State cadres are being moved from Iraq-Syria to Europe for establishing terror base (s) in Western Ukraine for launching terror attacks in Donbas and Russian forces elsewhere in Ukraine – akin to Pakistan’s proxy war against India. Zelensky as America’s Osama bin-Laden and heading the government-in-exile from Western Ukraine or from Poland is to direct the proxy war under CIA tutelage. This is as stupid as the Biden administration can get.
Russia’s interest is Donbas, control of the Black Sea, and Ukraine becoming neutral. But if Ukraine refuses to be neutral (as advised by Biden), Russia will be forced to establish a militarized buffer zone not only in Donbas but also along Ukraine’s western borders. This will imply continued additional NATO deployment in Eastern Europe, making China very happy.
How Biden plans and executes the Zelensky-headed insurgency only time will show. What is in Biden’s head is not known but his actions so far indicate that he wants to continue upping the ante on Russia. ISIS, therefore, may be provided with chemical, biological or radiological weapons. Recall that the first chemical attack in Syria was engineered by ‘Britain Defence’ – Britain’s top mercenary outfit. The intercepted conversation of its two top executives had talked of the need to provide a World War II chemical bomb to Homs in Syria, as requested by Qatar and approved by Washington.
For ISIS, this is an Allah-given opportunity. With the CIA using terrorist organizations for decades, Biden should know that hounds feed on hounds and terrorist organizations can be controlled only to certain extent, not completely. So, Europe will likely see an uptick in terrorism, especially France and Germany, unless US allies prevail upon Biden to stop this devilish plan which can go out of control. Biden should listen to the advice of the CIA Director rather than ‘ordering’ him to execute this plan.
If Biden is bent upon creating a mini-Pakistan under Zelensky in Western Ukraine, Putin could use tactical nukes to finish them off and the White Chick Brigade can keep screaming from rooftops. Remember despite Japan having been leveled with the conventional bombing, the US nuked Hiroshima just to test a weapon, and if that was not enough nuked Nagasaki three days later.
The US portrays Putin as a lunatic but continues to push him against the wall. Don’t Americans know for the same reason the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbour; lucky Japan did not have nuclear weapons. Biden’s brinkmanship and misreading Russia’s redlines could force a nuclear exchange. Bombing Russian forces are quite different from bombing Yugoslavia. Besides, Russia will know that any chemical or radiological attack against its forces in Ukraine has been engineered by US-NATO. Why then does Biden want Zelensky to keep fighting on? Is this a Christian Crusade for Biden?
As VP to Obama, Biden was famous for his gaffes. But not recognizing Russia’s security concern is his biggest screw-up. The Cuban Missile crisis was resolved because war between two nuclear nations, especially when both are P-5, implies escalation to the nuclear. Saying we will fight if Russia goes beyond the Ukraine border is a face-saver, knowing Putin has no such intentions. But American brinkmanship can still trigger nuclear exchange which will devastate Europe.
The main fallout from Biden’s brinkmanship is the official establishment of the US-NATO weakness; they will never attack Russia or China unless attacked first by these countries. That is the very reason successive US administrations have let China militarize the South and East China Seas, though playing the FONOPS drama.
Another important aspect is that in a nuclear war, China and Russia can absorb say 100,000 or more casualties but US-NATO-EU cannot in whose case governments will fall and the survivors will lynch the “smartasses”. This equation will not change no matter how many F-35s America sells to Germany and ask them to raise their military to levels of the Hitler era.
This is why Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants a more concrete US plan to defend Taiwan because Okinawa is just 110 km away. Is it going to be Taiwanese you fight on and “we are with you”? The American line always is that Taiwan is “different” – but how? If China invades Taiwan, will the US not have to hit targets in mainland China? Isn’t that the very reason why China is enlarging its nuclear arsenal exponentially and deploying more nukes? How many nuclear warheads China has is unknown. The US has 5,550 and Russia 6,257. Israel too holds some 90 nuclear warheads but whether it fights a nuclear war alongside the US will perhaps depend on the situation and contingency at that time.
India knows it has to fight on its own. That is why Blinken bandying about the Quad and reminding India about the China threat needs closer examination. In an India-China war, will the US target a Chinese warship in the Indian Ocean? The answer is no unless the US Navy is first targeted by China elsewhere. Otherwise, the US will say, you fight the Chinese, we are with you!
Ambiguity in warfare has many advantages. But Biden has blown that cover by indicating US-NATO will not fight Russia and China. Now Biden needs to stop fueling the Ukraine Conflict, de-escalate it instead, and ask Zelensky to seek a ceasefire with Russia and declare Ukraine will remain neutral. Balance negotiations can be discussed thereafter. Provocateur statements by Biden and Zelensky are not helping. First priority should be to stop the bloodshed.
Biden said in his State of the Union address: “When the history of this era is written, Putin’s war on Ukraine will have left Russia weaker and the rest of the world stronger.” But there is every possibility that when history is written, Biden will be marked as the man who sacrificed Ukraine for his own political gains, forcing Russia to invade Ukraine. And if he keeps on fuelling the conflict resulting in a nuclear exchange, history would also mark him Europe’s Prophet of Doom.
About The Author
Lt Gen. PC Katoch (Retd), PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SC is a third generation army officer who superannuated as Director General Information Systems of the Indian Army in 2009. A Special Forces officer, he participated in the 1971 Indo- Pak War, commanded an independent commando company in counter-insurgency in the Northeast, a Special Forces Battalion in Sri Lanka as part of the Indian Peace Keeping Force, a Brigade on Siachen Glacier, a Division in Ladakh and a Strike Corps in South Western Theatre. He has had his work published in leading defence and national security publications and think tanks in both India and abroad.
(This article was first published in 'Hill Post' reproduced with due persmission from the author. Views expressed are the author's own and do not reflect the editorial stance of Mission Victory India)